May 2023
Solar
Solar energy is the conversion of sunlight into usable energy forms. Solar photovoltaics (PV), solar thermal electricity and solar heating and cooling are well established solar technologies.
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Solar PV combines two advantages: module manufacturing can be done in large plants, which allows for economies of scale, and it is also a very modular technology and can be deployed in very small quantities at a time. This allows for a wide range of applications. Systems can be very small, from personal electronics or off-grid applications, up to utility-scale power generation facilities.
Last updated Dec 15, 2022
Key findings
Solar PV power generation in the Net Zero Scenario, 2010-2030
OpenMore effort needed in Solar PV generation
Solar PV generation increased by a record 179 TWh (up 22%) in 2021 to exceed 1 000 TWh. It demonstrated the second largest absolute generation growth of all renewable technologies in 2021, after wind. Solar PV is becoming the lowest-cost option for new electricity generation in most of the world, which is expected to propel investment in the coming years.
However, average annual generation growth of 25% in the period 2022-2030 is needed to follow the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. This corresponds to a more than threefold increase in annual capacity deployment until 2030, requiring much greater policy ambition and more effort from both public and private stakeholders, especially in the areas of grid integration and the mitigation of policy, regulation and financing challenges. This is particularly the case in emerging and developing countries.
However, average annual generation growth of 25% in the period 2022-2030 is needed to follow the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. This corresponds to a more than threefold increase in annual capacity deployment until 2030, requiring much greater policy ambition and more effort from both public and private stakeholders, especially in the areas of grid integration and the mitigation of policy, regulation and financing challenges. This is particularly the case in emerging and developing countries.
Share of cumulative power capacity by technology, 2010-2027
OpenSolar PV still dominates renewable energy capacity additions
Solar PV’s installed power capacity is poised to surpass that of coal by 2027, becoming the largest in the world. Cumulative solar PV capacity almost triples in our forecast, growing by almost 1 500 GW over the period, exceeding natural gas by 2026 and coal by 2027. Annual solar PV capacity additions increase every year for the next five years.
Despite current higher investment costs due to elevated commodity prices, utility-scale solar PV is the least costly option for new electricity generation in a significant majority of countries worldwide. Distributed solar PV, such as rooftop solar on buildings, is also set for faster growth as a result of higher retail electricity prices and growing policy support to help consumers save money on their energy bills.
Despite current higher investment costs due to elevated commodity prices, utility-scale solar PV is the least costly option for new electricity generation in a significant majority of countries worldwide. Distributed solar PV, such as rooftop solar on buildings, is also set for faster growth as a result of higher retail electricity prices and growing policy support to help consumers save money on their energy bills.
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Analysis
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Renewables 2022
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Renewables 2021
Analysis and forecasts to 2026
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Clean energy can help to ease the water crisis
Commentary — 22 March 2023
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Why the European Union needs bold and broad strategies for critical minerals
Commentary — 07 March 2023
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Energy Technology Perspectives 2023
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Will new PV manufacturing policies in the United States, India and the European Union create global PV supply diversification?
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Is the European Union on track to meet its REPowerEU goals?
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How much will renewable hydrogen production drive demand for new renewable energy capacity by 2027?
Our work
The SolarPACES TCP supports collaboration to advance development and deployment of concentrating solar thermal technologies. From a system perspective, concentrating solar power (CSP) offers significant advantages. With built-in thermal storage, CSP can improve the flexibility and stability of power systems, provide dispatchable electricity and help integrating more variable renewables.
Through multi-disciplinary international collaborative research and knowledge exchange, as well as market and policy recommendations, the SHC TCP works to increase the deployment rate of solar heating and cooling systems by breaking down the technical and non-technical barriers to increase deployment.
Established in 1993, the PVPS TCP supports international collaborative efforts to enhance the role of photovoltaic solar energy (PV) as a cornerstone in the transition to sustainable energy systems. The PVPS TCP seeks to serve as a global reference for policy and industry decision makers; to act as an impartial and reliable source of information on trends, markets and costs; and to provide meaningful guidelines and recommended practices for state-of-the-art PV applications.
Related sectoral Technology Collaboration Programmes (TCP)
Events
15 Dec 2022 15:00—16:00
Renewables 2022: Key findings
19 Jul 2022 14:30—15:30
Special Report on Solar PV Global Supply Chains Public Webinar
25 May 2022 14:30—15:30
